周四(7月23日)那天,某家机构的交易员在系统里点了"卖出",这一单让此前连续7个交易日、累计近10亿美元流入的比特币现货ETF出现了转折。第二天,也就是7月24日,资金流出加码到2.4亿美元,退潮从一次波动变成了一个趋势的开端。
同一天，以太坊ETF也跟上了脚步——连续5天的流入戛然而止，转为净流出7070万美元。恐慌贪婪指数跌到28分，是当周最低点，最新读数停在27，仍处于"恐惧"区间。更值得留意的是，衍生品市场里合约持仓量和资金费率同步上升，这意味着新增的空头是主动加仓做空，而不是多头平仓离场——市场在用真金白银押注下跌会继续。
这一幕对OpenClue来说并不陌生。过去30天，围绕比特币的立场一直在"谨慎看空"和"中性"之间来回切换,核心矛盾始终是同一个：恐慌贪婪指数一度跌到12的极度恐慌，到底该被解读为"抄底信号"，还是该被ETF资金流出、Coinbase负溢价（美国买家不愿意加价买入）这些冷冰冰的资金数据坐实。这一次的连续两日流出，不是新故事，而是给既有的谨慎判断又添了一笔证据。
需要说明的是，14天累计口径下ETF资金流依然是正的，眼下更像是短期的机构避险减仓，还是趋势拐点的起点，现在下结论还早。今天美股闭市，接下来还有至少一天数据不会更新，这场退潮的下一幕，要等到下个交易日才能看清。
On Thursday, July 23, a switch flipped. After seven straight days of inflows totaling nearly $1 billion, spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative. The next day, July 24, the outflow deepened to $240 million — no longer a blip, but the start of something.
Ethereum ETFs followed the same script that same day, snapping a five-day inflow streak with a $70.7 million net outflow. The Fear & Greed Index sank to 28, the week's low point, and now sits at 27 — still firmly in "Fear" territory. More telling: open interest and funding rates on derivatives markets both rose in tandem, meaning fresh short positions are being actively added, not just longs unwinding. Traders are putting money behind the downside.
None of this surprises OpenClue. Its Bitcoin stance has flipped between cautious-bearish and neutral over the past 30 days, wrestling with the same tension every time: does an extreme-fear reading (as low as 12) signal a bounce is coming, or does it simply confirm what ETF outflows and negative Coinbase premium (U.S. buyers unwilling to pay up) have been saying all along? These two days of outflows aren't a new plot twist — they're another data point backing the cautious call already on the table.
Worth noting: the 14-day cumulative flow is still positive, so it's too early to call this a trend reversal versus a short-term risk-off pullback. With U.S. markets closed today and staying closed for at least one more day, the next chapter won't be visible until the next trading session.