核心判断：比特币这波从7.7万美元下方收复失地，靠的是空头平仓，不是新钱进场。三条证据支撑这个判断。一，美国8月季调后核心CPI月率报0.3%，超出市场预期，加息押注随之升温，市场预计下周美联储加息概率约90%。二，衍生品数据显示，本轮反弹的主要动力是空头被迫平仓了结，而非新买盘介入。三，BTC现货ETF在9月10日净流出2.83亿美元，已经连续第3天净流出，是本周以来最长的连续流出纪录。截至目前，BTC报77,626美元，24小时跌0.2%，7天跌2.3%，距7天高点还差3.4%。反例也要说清楚：BTC价格确实从跌穿7.7万美元的低点弹了回来，恐慌贪婪指数还维持在56的"贪婪"区间，说明市场情绪并没有崩。但情绪指标和资金流向数据在打架——如果真是新资金进场,ETF流向理应转正，而现实是连续三天净流出。我们在9月10日已经把BTC的立场从看多下调到谨慎看多，当时的依据是一次处于87百分位的单日大跌，叠加ETF连续第二天净流出、多空比从2.27降到2.10。这次CPI冲击后的走势，进一步印证了当时下调判断的方向是对的。判断加固的关键条件：如果接下来ETF资金流转为净流入，或者衍生品数据显示是现货买盘而非空头平仓在推动价格，谨慎看多的判断需要重新评估上调；反之，若净流出天数拉长到5天以上，判断将进一步下修。周末两天美股休市，ETF数据不会更新，最新读数将维持到下周二。
Bottom line: bitcoin's bounce off sub-$77,000 levels is being driven by short covering, not fresh buying — three data points back this up. First, August core CPI came in at 0.3% month-over-month, hotter than expected, pushing next-week Fed rate-hike odds to roughly 90%. Second, derivatives data show the rebound was mostly forced closures of short positions, not new spot demand. Third, BTC spot ETFs saw $283 million in net outflows on September 10, the third straight day of outflows — the longest streak this week. BTC currently trades at $77,626, down 0.2% over 24 hours and 2.3% over the week, sitting 3.4% below its 7-day high. One counterpoint: the Fear & Greed Index still reads 56 ("Greed"), meaning sentiment hasn't cracked despite the CPI shock. But that sentiment reading conflicts with the outflow data — genuine new capital would typically show up as positive ETF flows, and it hasn't. We downgraded our BTC stance from bullish to cautiously bullish on September 10, based on a single-day drop in the 87th percentile combined with a second straight day of ETF outflows and the long/short ratio falling from 2.27 to 2.10. Price action following the CPI print is consistent with that earlier downgrade. This stance would need reassessment if ETF flows turn positive with spot-driven buying, or would be cut further if outflows extend past five days. U.S. markets are closed the next two days, so ETF flow data will hold at Wednesday's reading until Tuesday.