9月26日中午12点25分，TAO的空头突然崩了。一小时内价格暴涨5%，5分钟内就有6.85万美元的空头仓位被强制平仓，同时未平仓合约和永续合约成交量都在上升——看起来不只是空头跑路，还有新资金在跟进。
没想到两天后风向就反了。9月28日上午9点55分，TAO开始连续下跌，最后4小时演变成多头清算瀑布：杠杆做多的人被挨个强平，引发连锁抛售，24小时累计跌了10%。
OpenClue研究团队就在这天把TAO的立场从"谨慎看多"下调为"中性"。理由很直接：未平仓量同步下降了10.2%，说明是多头在平仓离场，而不是新的空头进场砸盘。此前支撑看多逻辑的"无杠杆式上涨"信号，这下也站不住脚了。
把时间拉长看会发现一个更有意思的细节：过去30天里，TAO的研究立场在中性、谨慎看多、看多之间已经切换了整整六次。每次上涨，团队都要重新纠结同一个问题——这波买盘是现货真金白银进场,还是纯杠杆资金在自娱自乐。
目前TAO报价312.47美元，24小时涨3.2%，但距7天高点仍有7.7%的差距，是本轮追踪币种里回撤最明显的之一。下一次价格异动出现时,未平仓量是涨还是跌,大概率又会成为判断立场的关键变量。
On September 26 at 12:25pm, TAO's shorts got blown out. Price jumped 5% in an hour, with $68,500 in short positions liquidated inside a single 5-minute window — and open interest was climbing too, suggesting fresh money was piling in, not just shorts fleeing.
Two days later the script flipped. Starting September 28 at 9:55am, TAO slid for 24 hours straight, the last four hours turning into a long-liquidation cascade — leveraged longs getting force-closed one after another, dragging the price down 10% for the day.
That same day, OpenClue downgraded its TAO stance from "cautiously bullish" to "neutral." The reason: open interest had dropped 10.2% in tandem with the price fall, a classic sign of longs unwinding rather than new shorts piling on — undercutting the earlier bullish case that TAO's rallies looked leverage-free.
Zoom out and the pattern gets more interesting: over the past 30 days, TAO's stance has swung between neutral, cautiously bullish, and bullish six separate times. Every rally forces the same question back open — is this real spot buying, or just leveraged traders playing musical chairs.
TAO now trades at $312.47, up 3.2% in 24 hours, but still sitting 7.7% below its 7-day high — one of the steeper pullbacks among tracked assets right now. Whether open interest rises or falls next time price moves will likely decide which way the stance swings again.