MACRO CALENDAR

日本央行利率决议Bank of Japan decision

下一次：12月18日中午前后（日本时间）Next: Dec 18, 2026, around midday Tokyo time · 还剩 48 天48 days left

为什么会影响加密价格Why it moves crypto

日本长期维持极低利率，很多机构借便宜的日元，去买收益更高的资产，包括美股和加密。日本央行一旦加息或释放加息信号，借日元的成本上升，这部分资金可能被迫卖掉资产还钱，全球风险资产往往一起受压。2024 年 7 月底日本央行加息，几天后又叠加美国就业数据走弱，比特币在 8 月 5 日盘中一度下跌超过 15%。日本央行没有固定的公布时刻，通常在会议第二天中午前后（日本时间）。

Japan kept rates near zero for years, so many institutions borrowed cheap yen to buy higher-yielding assets, including US stocks and crypto. When the Bank of Japan hikes or signals a hike, that borrowing gets more expensive, some of the money may have to sell assets to repay, and risk assets worldwide often come under pressure together. After the BOJ hiked in late July 2024, followed days later by weak US jobs data, bitcoin fell more than 15% intraday on August 5. The BOJ has no fixed release time; the decision usually comes around midday Tokyo time on the meeting's second day.

历次公布后市场怎么反应How the market reacted each time

10月30日中午前后（日本时间）Oct 30, 2026, around midday Tokyo time

日本央行决议公布后1小时BTC上涨1.0%，ETH上涨1.3%，24小时内两者波动均不大。After the BOJ decision, BTC rose 1.0% and ETH rose 1.3% within an hour, with little movement over the following 24 hours.

公布前 3 小时：BTC -0.7%、ETH -1.9%。公布后 1 小时：BTC +1.0%（成交量是平时的 1.0 倍）、ETH +1.2%（成交量是平时的 0.9 倍）。公布后 24 小时：BTC 0.0%，期间最大振幅 3.2%；ETH +1.6%，期间最大振幅 2.5%。3 hours before: BTC -0.7%, ETH -1.9%. First hour after: BTC +1.0% (volume 1.0x normal), ETH +1.2% (volume 0.9x normal). 24 hours after: BTC 0.0% (range 3.2%); ETH +1.6% (range 2.5%).

公布后 24 小时24h after: BTC +0.0% · ETH +1.6%

9月18日中午前后（日本时间）Sep 18, 2026, around midday Tokyo time

公布后1小时放量上涨，24小时内BTC涨5.6%、ETH涨6.5%，波动剧烈Volume surged after the announcement, with BTC up 5.6% and ETH up 6.5% within 24 hours in sharp moves

公布前 3 小时：BTC +0.8%、ETH +0.6%。公布后 1 小时：BTC +0.5%（成交量是平时的 2.0 倍）、ETH +0.7%（成交量是平时的 2.1 倍）。公布后 24 小时：BTC +5.6%，期间最大振幅 6.2%；ETH +6.5%，期间最大振幅 7.5%。3 hours before: BTC +0.8%, ETH +0.6%. First hour after: BTC +0.5% (volume 2.0x normal), ETH +0.7% (volume 2.1x normal). 24 hours after: BTC +5.6% (range 6.2%); ETH +6.5% (range 7.5%).

公布后 24 小时24h after: BTC +5.6% · ETH +6.5%

7月31日中午前后（日本时间）Jul 31, 2026, around midday Tokyo time

公布前BTC和ETH已提前下跌，公布后1小时企稳，24小时内跌幅有所扩大BTC and ETH dipped before the announcement, steadied in the first hour after, then fell further over 24 hours

公布前 3 小时：BTC -0.7%、ETH -0.7%。公布后 1 小时：BTC +0.1%（成交量是平时的 0.7 倍）、ETH +0.2%（成交量是平时的 1.1 倍）。公布后 24 小时：BTC -1.9%，期间最大振幅 3.2%；ETH -1.9%，期间最大振幅 3.3%。3 hours before: BTC -0.7%, ETH -0.7%. First hour after: BTC +0.1% (volume 0.7x normal), ETH +0.2% (volume 1.1x normal). 24 hours after: BTC -1.9% (range 3.2%); ETH -1.9% (range 3.3%).

公布后 24 小时24h after: BTC -1.9% · ETH -1.9%

这些记录只描述公布前后发生了什么，不代表事件就是涨跌的原因，也不是对下一次的预测，不构成投资建议。These notes describe what happened around each release; they don't prove the release caused the move and aren't a forecast. Not investment advice.