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美国 GDP 初值US GDP (advance estimate)

下一次：1月28日 21:30（北京时间）Next: Jan 28, 2027 13:30 UTC · 还剩 89 天89 days left

为什么会影响加密价格Why it moves crypto

GDP（国内生产总值）初值是对美国上一季度经济增长的第一次估算。增长强劲，往往意味着经济不太需要降息，降息预期会降温；增长明显放缓，降息预期升温，但如果引发衰退担忧，股票和加密也可能一起下跌。它每季度才有一次，影响往往取决于和市场预期的差距。

The advance GDP estimate is the first reading of US growth in the previous quarter. Strong growth tends to suggest the economy needs fewer cuts, so cut expectations cool; a clear slowdown raises cut hopes, but if it sparks recession fears, stocks and crypto can fall together. It comes once a quarter, and its effect usually depends on how far it lands from expectations.

历次公布后市场怎么反应How the market reacted each time

10月29日 20:30（北京时间）Oct 29, 2026 12:30 UTC

公布后1小时波动不大，但随后24小时BTC跌3.3%、ETH跌3.8%，振幅明显放大BTC and ETH barely moved in the first hour after release, but fell 3.3% and 3.8% respectively over the next 24 hours with much wider swings

公布前 3 小时：BTC 0.0%、ETH +0.2%。公布后 1 小时：BTC +0.2%（成交量是平时的 0.9 倍）、ETH +0.2%（成交量是平时的 0.7 倍）。公布后 24 小时：BTC -3.3%，期间最大振幅 6.8%；ETH -3.8%，期间最大振幅 8.8%。同一时刻还公布了美国 PCE 物价指数，无法区分是哪一项带来的。3 hours before: BTC 0.0%, ETH +0.2%. First hour after: BTC +0.2% (volume 0.9x normal), ETH +0.2% (volume 0.7x normal). 24 hours after: BTC -3.3% (range 6.8%); ETH -3.8% (range 8.8%). Other data came out at the same time, so the move can't be pinned on this release alone.

公布后 24 小时24h after: BTC -3.3% · ETH -3.8%

7月30日 20:30（北京时间）Jul 30, 2026 12:30 UTC

GDP公布后1小时BTC、ETH波动不大，但24小时内BTC跌1.8%、ETH跌2.3%，且当时还公布了PCE物价指数BTC and ETH barely moved in the hour after the GDP release, but fell 1.8% and 2.3% over the next 24 hours, with PCE price data also released at the same time

公布前 3 小时：BTC +0.6%、ETH +0.1%。公布后 1 小时：BTC -0.1%（成交量是平时的 0.6 倍）、ETH +0.1%（成交量是平时的 0.5 倍）。公布后 24 小时：BTC -1.8%，期间最大振幅 2.8%；ETH -2.3%，期间最大振幅 3.2%。同一时刻还公布了美国 PCE 物价指数，无法区分是哪一项带来的。3 hours before: BTC +0.6%, ETH +0.1%. First hour after: BTC -0.1% (volume 0.6x normal), ETH +0.1% (volume 0.5x normal). 24 hours after: BTC -1.8% (range 2.8%); ETH -2.3% (range 3.2%). Other data came out at the same time, so the move can't be pinned on this release alone.

公布后 24 小时24h after: BTC -1.8% · ETH -2.3%

这些记录只描述公布前后发生了什么，不代表事件就是涨跌的原因，也不是对下一次的预测，不构成投资建议。These notes describe what happened around each release; they don't prove the release caused the move and aren't a forecast. Not investment advice.