2026年第28周加密市场周报：比特币站回6.4万，市场为什么还是不敢相信？Crypto Weekly Report, Week 28 2026: Bitcoin Back Above $64,000 — So Why Doesn't the Market Believe It Yet?

This week's call: neutral, leaning cautious.

The easiest illusion to fall for this week is that Bitcoin's move back above $64,000 means the market has already completed its repair. But once you line up price, sentiment, ETF flows, and altcoins side by side, you get a different answer: price has bounced, but institutional money, market sentiment, and the breadth of the rally have not yet been confirmed. From July 4 to July 11, Bitcoin rose from about $63,100 to around $64,000, closing the week slightly green. But it wasn't a smooth ride — it first dropped to about $61,300, then spiked to a two-week high near $64,500, before settling back around $64,000. On the surface not much changed, but underneath, there were several rounds of fast back-and-forth.

## The First Trigger of the Week: Strategy Ends Its "Never Sell" Policy

The early-week drop was directly tied to a major piece of news. On Monday, July 6, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that between June 29 and July 5 it had sold 3,588 BTC, worth about $216 million, to fund dividend payments on its Digital Credit preferred shares. This was not an ordinary reduction. On June 29, Strategy launched a new "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing sales of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin — effectively ending its signature "never sell" policy, and marking its largest sale since the tax-driven disposals of 2022. Michael Saylor has long served as the market's anchor of "buy only, never sell" faith; when that anchor starts to loosen, the hit to market sentiment is far bigger than the selling pressure from a few hundred million dollars alone. This is also the key to understanding this week's dynamic of "price came back, but confidence didn't."

## Price Came Back, But Sentiment Didn't

Even though Bitcoin recovered part of its losses, market sentiment stayed low. Alternative.me's Fear and Greed Index stood at 22 last week, briefly ticked up to 23 early this week, and has now recovered to 26. In other words, sentiment has improved somewhat, but the overall market still hasn't broken out of "fear" territory. This suggests investors' current mindset isn't "the bull market is back" — it's closer to "things have dropped enough that we can try nibbling a bit, but we're not yet confident enough to bet on a real trend reversal." Price took the first step toward repair; confidence hasn't caught up yet.

## ETFs Turned Positive, But Institutional Money Is Still Testing the Waters

The thing most worth examining closely this week is U.S. spot ETF flows. Bitcoin ETFs over the five trading days performed as follows: net inflows of $265.7 million on July 6, net inflows of $21.5 million on July 7, net outflows of $84.9 million on July 8, net outflows of $95.3 million on July 9, and net inflows of $90.4 million again on July 10. Add it up, and Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $197.4 million this week, while Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of about $84.3 million over the same period. Looking at this week alone, traditional financial money has actually turned positive again. But stretch the timeframe out, and the picture looks completely different. Over the 14 trading days from June 22 to July 10, Bitcoin ETFs still show cumulative net outflows of about $2.116 billion. The blue cumulative line on the chart is still deep in negative territory, which tells the real story: even though the last day brought a green inflow bar again, the funding gap built up before it remains large. So what the ETF data is really signaling this week isn't "institutions are back" — it's that institutions have stopped their sustained retreat, but haven't yet started sustained buying. One day of inflows, one day of outflows — that's money testing the price, not forming a consistent direction. To confirm institutional demand is genuinely returning, you'd need to see BTC and ETH ETFs post synchronized net inflows for at least three consecutive trading days, not just an occasional single green day.

## Altcoins Haven't Kept Up — Rally Breadth Remains Narrow

If you only look at Bitcoin, this week seems fairly solid. But zoom out to the broader market, and the rebound looks far less complete. Early in the week, altcoins briefly warmed up, with the Altcoin Season indicator climbing to a near-three-month high. But that optimism didn't last. When the market pivoted back to risk-off on July 8, Bitcoin fell about 2.1%, Solana fell about 5%, and XRP fell about 3.7% — high-volatility altcoins clearly dropped more. Over the full week, BTC rose about 1.5%, ETH essentially went nowhere, and SOL slipped from around $81.7 to near $78, a decline of nearly 5%. By week's end, Bitcoin still accounted for about 56.2% of the total crypto market cap, with capital remaining heavily concentrated in BTC rather than broadly spreading into altcoins. This means this week wasn't a typical "full recovery of risk appetite" — it's closer to "money is willing to come back to Bitcoin first, but not yet willing to chase higher-risk altcoins on a large scale." A truly convincing market repair shouldn't just show BTC rising; it should also show ETH starting to outperform, high-volatility assets like SOL strengthening in tandem, and more small- and mid-cap coins participating. Right now, that evidence isn't there yet.

## Volume Hasn't Delivered a Decisive Confirmation Either

Volume is another weak spot in this rebound. In Q2 of this year, spot trading volume on centralized exchanges totaled about $3 trillion, down 18.9% quarter-over-quarter — a two-year low. That means July's rebound is itself starting from an environment of already-low trading activity. As of July 11, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume was about $14 billion. That's enough to support short-term price swings, but it's hard to call it a clear, broad-based breakout in volume. So the more reasonable read is: buying has indeed shown up, but it isn't yet strong enough to pull in the large pool of sidelined capital. If Bitcoin keeps rising next week but volume doesn't rise with it and altcoins still don't broaden participation, this rebound could still just be a price repair happening in a low-liquidity environment.

## On-Chain Data and Leverage Markets Are Also Pulling in Different Directions

Based on on-chain data collected this week, Bitcoin continues to show signs of flowing out of exchanges, which usually means some holders are moving BTC into personal wallets, reducing short-term selling intent. Ethereum, however, briefly saw net inflows into exchanges, suggesting some ETH holders may be preparing to trade or sell. The divergence in on-chain direction between BTC and ETH shows the market still hasn't settled on a unified read. The derivatives market also went through a notable shift. On July 9, as price rebounded, open interest fell about 2.4% while funding rates started climbing again — this looks more like deleveraging and some short-covering than a wave of new longs actively entering (though these two indicators alone can't fully confirm that the rebound's buying came from short-covering). By July 10, open interest and funding rates began rising together, indicating that actively long leveraged positions were re-entering the market. But this shouldn't simply be read as "the structure is getting healthier" — a more accurate description is that the market shifted from the prior day's deleveraging-driven repair into re-adding risk. If price keeps rising, these new positions become a driving force; if price pulls back, they could just as easily turn into liquidation pressure again.

## The Real Test Next Week: CPI Is Coming

Next week brings a clear set of macro data points: On Tuesday, July 14, the U.S. releases June CPI (Beijing time in the evening, 8:30am ET) — the most important data point of the week. The same day, the Fed Chair will also appear before the House for semiannual monetary policy testimony. If CPI comes in below expectations, the dollar and Treasury yields could pull back, favoring continued repair in risk assets like Bitcoin; if inflation runs hot again, the market may go back to pricing in "higher rates for longer," and this week's nascent rebound would face a real test. On Wednesday, July 15, PPI is released, the Fed Chair testifies before the Senate, and the Fed's Beige Book follows. PPI reflects upstream costs for businesses; if both CPI and PPI run hot together, concerns about inflation reaccelerating would intensify noticeably. Retail sales come out Thursday, July 16, and industrial production and capacity utilization come out Friday, July 17, helping the market judge whether the U.S. economy is cooling gently or still running hot. Worth noting: there's no FOMC rate decision next week — the next meeting is July 28-29 — but next week's inflation data and the Fed Chair's remarks will directly shape market expectations heading into that meeting.

## Four Confirmation Signals to Watch For Next Week

Don't get pulled around by any single day's move — what's worth watching is whether the following four signals show up together: First, can ETFs form a streak of continuous inflows — BTC and ETH ETFs need synchronized net inflows for at least three consecutive trading days before institutional money can be said to be forming a sustained trend; Second, can the Fear and Greed Index stabilize above 30 — moving further up from 26 would signal a real repair in confidence; Third, can volume and rally breadth expand — ETH, SOL, and more altcoins need to strengthen together, and spot volume needs to keep pace; Fourth, can the market hold this week's range after CPI is released — if, once the macro data lands, Bitcoin can still hold the $61,000-$62,000 zone and challenge the ~$64,500 level again, that would show buyers are taking control; conversely, if it breaks below this week's low, the current repair is likely still just a bounce.

## This Week's Conclusion

The market didn't truly pick a direction this week. Bitcoin moving back above $64,000 and ETF weekly flows turning net positive suggest the most pessimistic phase may be temporarily behind us. But the Fear and Greed Index is still low, cumulative ETF outflows over the past 14 trading days still exceed $2.1 billion, ETH and altcoins haven't broadly followed, and volume hasn't shown a decisive expansion either. So it's still too early to call this move a trend reversal. The more accurate description is: price has started to repair, but institutions, sentiment, and market breadth are still lagging behind — the bounce is here, but confirmation isn't yet. What really needs watching next week isn't just whether Bitcoin can keep rising, but whether, after CPI is released, ETF flows, trading volume, and altcoins can all catch up together. Only if all three improve at the same time can the market be said to be moving from "a gasp after a deep drop" toward a more solidly grounded repair.

This article is for market information organization and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.