上周日晚上，比特币还站在6.5万美元上方，恐惧贪婪指数是26分——市场谨慎，但多数人并没有觉得会出什么大事。谁也没想到，接下来这一周会变成一场“情绪往下、资金反复”的拉锯战。到周六结束时，比特币价格回落到6.3万美元附近，恐惧贪婪指数则在25到30之间来回震荡，没有一天真正回到“贪婪”区间。
这个故事，要从交易平台接连退出讲起。周日，运营了九年的交易所BitMart宣布进入有序退出阶段：平台将在8月26日停止主要交易服务，并计划在后续正式终止运营，其平台代币随即暴跌近六成。这也是一周内第二起交易平台退出的消息，此前BitMEX也传出关停相关业务的消息。这种事情本身未必会直接砸盘，但它像往水里滴了一滴墨——市场对中小交易平台的信任，又被悄悄稀释了一点。当天恐惧贪婪指数跌到26分，成为这一周相对偏低的开局。
紧接着到了周一，剧情出现了短暂反转。美国与伊朗暂停相互打击，市场重新燃起外交谈判的希望，油价随之大跌。此前市场一直担心能源价格上涨会重新推高通胀，并迫使央行维持更紧的货币政策。随着这层担忧暂时缓解，比特币顺势冲到本周最高的65,439美元，恐惧贪婪指数也回升到30分，成为本周最高的一天。以太坊永续合约的资金费率由负转正，说明衍生品市场的多头意愿有所增强，但仅凭资金费率，还不能确定这些仓位究竟是方向性做多，还是套利与对冲交易。另一边，市场当时看到的比特币现货ETF最新数据仍然是净流出2.4亿美元。由于美国市场和亚洲市场存在时差，周一亚洲时段看到的ETF数据，实际对应的是上一个美国交易日，因此ETF渠道的资金变化并没有和币价回暖同步。
好日子只持续了一天。周二，韩国Kospi指数大幅下跌，全球风险资产受到拖累。与此同时，美国参议院对加密监管法案的推进再次受阻，市场原本期待的政策利好没有如期落地，比特币随即跌破6.3万美元附近，一度回落至63,688美元。这一天，衍生品市场出现了一个值得关注的组合：未平仓合约，也就是OI上升，但资金费率同时下降。价格下跌、OI上升、资金费率下降，这种组合与新增空头资金进场的特征相符，说明市场可能正在增加看跌押注。不过，这里面也可能包含套期保值、基差交易，或者新多头在承接卖盘，因此不能仅凭OI和资金费率，就完全确认是空头单方面主导。同一天，山寨币普遍下跌5%到9%，比特币虽然相对抗跌，但并没有给山寨市场提供足够支撑。
周三，市场都在等待美联储利率决议。这是新任美联储主席沃什上任后主持的第二次FOMC会议。市场普遍预计利率会维持不变，但对沃什究竟会释放多强的鹰派信号，存在明显分歧。这一天，比特币OI下降约1.9%，资金费率也从0.01%附近回落，以太坊资金费率则由负转正。这种“持仓量下降、资金费率有所企稳”的组合，更像是此前部分空头正在回补仓位，也就是平掉空单、买回比特币，从而帮助价格稳定在63,860美元附近。但这更多是杠杆仓位层面的松动，并不能说明市场已经出现了大规模新增买盘。
真正的答案在周四揭晓，但市场并没有因此松一口气。美联储继续维持利率不变，不过分析师普遍认为，沃什在记者会上的表态偏鹰派——相比市场期待，他对通胀依然谨慎，也没有释放急于放松货币政策的信号。结果，恐惧贪婪指数回落到28分，市场情绪反而比会议前更加紧张。当天市场看到的最新美国比特币现货ETF数据，结束了此前连续多日的净流出，转为净流入3210万美元。这笔流入规模并不算大，更像是资金流止跌后的第一个信号，象征意义大于实际规模。同一天，永续合约市场剧烈震荡，24小时爆仓金额达到2.86亿美元，但比特币价格本身却没有出现明显方向。这说明当天的主要波动，更像是高杠杆多空双方之间的互相清算，而不是现货买卖盘推动出的单边趋势。值得一提的是，传统股市的恐慌指标VIX在一周内明显上涨，但加密市场自身的实际波动率仍然处于相对低位，传统市场的紧张情绪当时还没有完全传导到比特币价格之中。
到了周五，情绪与资金之间开始出现明显分裂。恐惧贪婪指数跌到本周最低的25分，已经逼近“极度恐慌”区间的边缘，但市场看到的比特币现货ETF数据却连续第二天净流入，规模扩大到2.33亿美元，其中贝莱德IBIT一家就贡献了1.83亿美元。一边是情绪指标显示市场接近极度恐慌，一边是ETF渠道资金在进场，这样的背离本身比单纯的上涨或者下跌更值得琢磨。与此同时，稳定币总市值继续收缩，说明加密原生市场中的美元流动性依然偏谨慎，场外等待入场的资金并没有明显增加。不过，稳定币资金和ETF资金属于两个不同的资金渠道，稳定币市值下降，并不能直接证明ETF买盘只是存量资金腾挪。当天，传统股市的纳斯达克指数和标普500指数都在上涨，比特币却继续下跌，截至当时的统计时点报62,905美元附近。这种分化说明，这一次调整更像是币圈内部的资金重新洗牌，而不是被传统股市直接带崩。
到了周六，这种“情绪恐慌、ETF资金流入”的分裂状态再次被打断。恐惧贪婪指数从周五的25分小幅回升至27分，情绪略有改善，但周六市场看到的美国周五交易日ETF数据，却由此前连续两天的净流入转为净流出2.65亿美元，其中贝莱德IBIT一家净流出1.23亿美元。此前两天刚刚露头的ETF买盘，并没有顺利延续成稳定趋势。同一天，硬件钱包Coldcard旧款固件被曝存在密钥生成随机数缺陷。攻击者并不是远程攻入硬件设备，而是利用部分旧版本生成的密钥可能具有可预测性，转移了约7000万美元的比特币资产。这件事给本已脆弱的市场，又增加了一层对自托管安全性的担忧。
把整周串起来看，几条线其实是相互呼应的。恐惧贪婪指数全周在25到30之间徘徊，最悲观的一天是周五的25分，情绪相对最好的一天是周一的30分，但没有一天真正离开“恐惧”区间。比特币现货ETF的资金流则像一张心电图，忽正忽负。按照对应的美国交易日计算，周初资金持续流出，随后两天转为净流入，到了周五又重新转负。累计来看，最近14个美国交易日仍然净流入约4.72亿美元。这说明从更大的时间尺度看，ETF渠道的资金并没有完全撤退；但从短期来看，这些资金仍然进进出出，暂时缺乏一个稳定、持续的方向。资金结构方面，比特币在整个加密市场总市值中的占比，从周初的56.4%小幅下降到周末的56.3%；除比特币和以太坊之外的其他加密资产市值占比，则从33.6%微升至33.7%。从相对表现上看，山寨币的市值占比略有回升，但变化幅度非常小，还谈不上真正意义上的山寨币资金轮动。与此同时，稳定币总市值从3,033亿美元逐步收缩到3,017亿美元，说明加密原生市场里的流动性没有增加，反而在缓慢减少。这意味着这一周的市场博弈，更多还是已有资金之间的重新换手，而不是大量新资金持续推动。
这个故事的下一幕，大概率取决于两条线能不能重新对齐。如果比特币ETF资金能够连续多个交易日保持净流入，而不是像本周这样一天正、一天负，那么说明ETF渠道的信心可能正在真正筑底，市场情绪也有机会逐渐回暖。但如果稳定币市值继续收缩，加密原生市场中的资金持续观望，那么即便某一天ETF出现大额净流入，也可能仍然只是短期波动，而不是趋势转折。下周最重要的宏观时点，是8月7日周五公布的美国7月非农就业报告。就业数据的强弱，会直接影响市场对美联储下一步政策路径的判断，进而牵动比特币以及其他风险资产的情绪。此外，8月4日的美国职位空缺数据，以及8月6日的生产率和单位劳动力成本数据，同样可能影响市场对通胀和利率的预期。除此之外，交易平台退出的消息会不会继续扩散，自托管安全事件会不会进一步发酵，也是观察市场信任状况的两个侧面指标。目前来看，这两个方向都值得保持关注，但还看不到明确的后续趋势。
【副题】Bitcoin drifted from above $65,000 toward $63,000 as the Fear & Greed Index stayed stuck between 25 and 30 all week, while spot ETF flows swung between net inflows and outflows and a wave of exchange shutdowns chipped away at market trust.
Last Sunday night, bitcoin was still sitting above $65,000, and the Fear & Greed Index read 26 — the market was cautious, but most people didn't expect anything major to happen. No one anticipated that the coming week would turn into a tug-of-war of "sentiment sliding lower while capital flows seesawed back and forth." By the close of Saturday, bitcoin had pulled back to around $63,000, and the Fear & Greed Index oscillated between 25 and 30 all week, never once truly returning to "greed" territory.
The story starts with a string of exchanges exiting the market. On Sunday, BitMart, an exchange that had been operating for nine years, announced it was entering an orderly wind-down phase: the platform would halt its main trading services on August 26, with plans to formally terminate operations afterward, and its platform token immediately plunged nearly 60%. This was the second exchange-exit news of the week — BitMEX had earlier reported news of shutting down related businesses. This kind of event doesn't necessarily crash the market directly, but it's like a drop of ink hitting water — trust in small and mid-sized trading platforms got quietly diluted a bit more. That day the Fear & Greed Index fell to 26, making it a relatively low starting point for the week.
Then on Monday, the plot briefly reversed. The US and Iran paused strikes against each other, reviving hopes for diplomatic negotiations, and oil prices tumbled as a result. The market had previously worried that rising energy prices would reignite inflation and force central banks to keep monetary policy tighter. With that concern temporarily eased, bitcoin surged to the week's high of $65,439, and the Fear & Greed Index climbed back to 30 — the highest reading of the week. Ethereum perpetual funding rates flipped from negative to positive, suggesting stronger bullish appetite in the derivatives market, but funding rates alone can't confirm whether these positions were directional longs or arbitrage/hedging trades. Meanwhile, the latest bitcoin spot ETF data the market was seeing at the time still showed a net outflow of $240 million. Because of the time difference between US and Asian markets, the ETF data seen during Monday's Asian session actually corresponded to the previous US trading day, so the ETF-channel capital movement wasn't in sync with the price recovery.
The good times only lasted a day. On Tuesday, South Korea's Kospi index fell sharply, dragging down risk assets globally. At the same time, the US Senate's push on crypto regulatory legislation stalled again, and the policy tailwind the market had been hoping for failed to materialize as expected. Bitcoin promptly dropped back below around $63,000, briefly touching $63,688. That day, a notable combination emerged in derivatives markets: open interest (OI) rose while funding rates fell at the same time. Falling prices, rising OI, and falling funding rates together fit the profile of fresh short-side capital entering the market, suggesting the market may have been adding to bearish bets. That said, this could also involve hedging, basis trades, or new longs absorbing sell orders, so OI and funding rates alone can't fully confirm that shorts were the sole driving force. That same day, altcoins broadly fell 5% to 9%; bitcoin held up relatively better, but that wasn't enough to provide real support for the altcoin market.
On Wednesday, the market was waiting on the Fed's rate decision. This was the second FOMC meeting chaired by new Fed Chair Warsh since taking office. Markets broadly expected rates to stay unchanged, but there was clear disagreement over just how hawkish a signal Warsh might send. That day, bitcoin OI fell about 1.9%, and funding rates also pulled back from around 0.01%, while Ethereum's funding rate flipped from negative to positive. This combination of "falling open interest, stabilizing funding rates" looks more like some previously short positions being covered — that is, shorts closing out and buying back bitcoin — helping the price stabilize around $63,860. But this was more a loosening at the leveraged-position level, and it doesn't indicate that large-scale new buying had emerged in the market.
The real answer came on Thursday, but it didn't bring the market any relief. The Fed kept rates unchanged, but analysts broadly viewed Warsh's press conference remarks as hawkish — compared with what the market had hoped for, he remained cautious on inflation and gave no signal of being in a hurry to ease monetary policy. As a result, the Fear & Greed Index fell back to 28, and market sentiment actually grew more tense than before the meeting. The latest US bitcoin spot ETF data the market was seeing that day ended the streak of net outflows from previous days, flipping to a net inflow of $32.1 million. That inflow wasn't large — it looked more like the first sign that outflows had stopped, symbolically significant more than substantively so. That same day, the perpetual futures market swung violently, with 24-hour liquidations reaching $286 million, yet bitcoin's price itself showed no clear directional move. This suggests that day's main volatility looked more like mutual liquidation between highly leveraged longs and shorts, rather than a one-sided trend driven by spot buying and selling. Worth noting: the VIX, traditional stock markets' fear gauge, rose noticeably over the week, but crypto's own realized volatility remained relatively low — at the time, the tension in traditional markets hadn't yet fully transmitted into bitcoin's price.
By Friday, sentiment and capital flows started to visibly diverge. The Fear & Greed Index fell to the week's low of 25, nearing the edge of "extreme fear" territory, yet the bitcoin spot ETF data the market was seeing showed a net inflow for a second straight day, with the size expanding to $233 million — of which BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed $183 million. On one hand, sentiment indicators showed the market nearing extreme fear; on the other, capital was flowing in through the ETF channel — this kind of divergence is itself more worth pondering than a simple rise or fall. Meanwhile, total stablecoin market cap kept shrinking, indicating that dollar liquidity within the crypto-native market remained cautious, with no clear increase in sidelined capital waiting to come in. That said, stablecoin capital and ETF capital are two different channels, so a decline in stablecoin market cap doesn't directly prove that ETF buying was merely a reshuffling of existing funds. That day, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both rose in traditional stock markets, while bitcoin kept falling, sitting at around $62,905 as of that point's data snapshot. This divergence suggests that this adjustment looked more like an internal reshuffling of capital within the crypto space, rather than being dragged down directly by traditional stock markets.
By Saturday, this split state of "panicked sentiment, ETF inflows" got interrupted again. The Fear & Greed Index ticked up slightly from Friday's 25 to 27, a modest improvement in sentiment. But the ETF data for Friday's US trading day that the market saw on Saturday flipped from two straight days of net inflows to a net outflow of $265 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone seeing a net outflow of $123 million. The ETF buying that had just emerged over the previous two days failed to carry through into a stable trend. That same day, it was reported that older firmware for the Coldcard hardware wallet had a flaw in the random number generation used for key creation. The attacker didn't remotely breach the hardware device — rather, they exploited the fact that keys generated by some older versions could be predictable, moving about $70 million worth of bitcoin assets. This added yet another layer of concern over self-custody security to an already fragile market.
Stringing the whole week together, several threads actually echo each other. The Fear & Greed Index hovered between 25 and 30 all week — the most pessimistic day was Friday at 25, and the relatively best day for sentiment was Monday at 30 — but it never actually left "fear" territory on any single day. Bitcoin spot ETF flows looked like an EKG, flipping between positive and negative. Based on the corresponding US trading days, outflows continued at the start of the week, then flipped to net inflows for two days, before turning negative again by Friday. Cumulatively, over the most recent 14 US trading days, net inflows still totaled about $472 million. This suggests that on a larger timeframe, capital hasn't fully retreated from the ETF channel; but in the short term, this money is still moving in and out, still lacking a stable, sustained direction for now. On the capital-structure side, bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap edged down from 56.4% at the start of the week to 56.3% by the weekend; the market-cap share of crypto assets other than bitcoin and Ethereum ticked up slightly from 33.6% to 33.7%. In relative terms, altcoins' market-cap share nudged up a bit, but the change was very small — not yet enough to call it a genuine altcoin capital rotation. Meanwhile, total stablecoin market cap gradually shrank from $303.3 billion to $301.7 billion, indicating that liquidity within the crypto-native market didn't increase — it actually slowly decreased. This means that this week's market tug-of-war was mostly existing capital changing hands, rather than being driven by a steady influx of large amounts of new money.
The next chapter of this story will most likely depend on whether these two threads can realign. If bitcoin ETF flows can sustain net inflows across multiple consecutive trading days — rather than flipping positive one day and negative the next as they did this week — that would suggest confidence in the ETF channel may genuinely be bottoming out, giving market sentiment a chance to gradually warm up. But if stablecoin market cap keeps shrinking and capital within the crypto-native market stays on the sidelines, then even a large single-day net inflow into ETFs could still turn out to be just short-term noise rather than a trend reversal. Next week's most important macro data point is the US July non-farm payrolls report, due Friday, August 7. How strong or weak that jobs data comes in will directly affect how the market reads the Fed's next policy moves, which will in turn sway sentiment for bitcoin and other risk assets. In addition, the US job openings data on August 4, along with productivity and unit labor cost data on August 6, could similarly influence market expectations around inflation and interest rates. Beyond that, whether news of exchange exits keeps spreading, and whether self-custody security incidents keep escalating, are two more indicators worth watching as gauges of market trust. For now, both of these directions are worth keeping an eye on, but no clear follow-through trend is visible yet.